The Money Maze
Listen

Maze Dive DIVE Nº 017

Trellidor (JSE: TRL): (JSE: TRL): HEPS Down Up to 99.97%. Now What?

6 min

Loads the Spotify player. Spotify sets its own cookies.

Trellidor (JSE: TRL) warned HEPS would fall up to 99.97% as a big UK project ended. Lumpy revenue, cost cuts, a 'shareholder of reference' and the risks.

Show notes

Trellidor sells security gates. Its earnings, unfortunately, were left standing outside in the rain. The trading statement opened with “addressing the erosion in shareholder value”, which is corporate for “please sit down, and make it a double”.

By The Money Maze | Listen to the episode: Spotify

As The Finance Ghost might say, when a trading statement starts with a paragraph about the erosion of shareholder value, you don’t need a CFA charter to know it’s going to hurt.

On 10 February 2026, Trellidor Holdings, the Durban-based maker of those trellis security gates on half the windows in South Africa, told the market what to expect for the six months to 31 December 2025. It was not pretty.

Trellidor’s trading statement in plain English

Headline earnings per share would be between 0.01 cents and 1.19 cents, compared with 29.6 cents a year earlier. A decrease of between 95.97% and 99.97%.

Braai translation: last year you brought 30 chops to the fire. This year you arrived with one slice of boerewors and half a mushroom.

A trading statement is the JSE’s early warning system. Companies must publish one once they’re reasonably sure results will differ by 20% or more from last time. This one differed by, well, nearly everything.

Why Trellidor’s earnings collapsed

The single biggest reason was a once-off UK project. In the previous period, a big UK contract had added R38 million of revenue and R21.3 million of gross profit. That project finished in February 2025, and it didn’t come back.

That’s lumpy revenue. Project income arrives in bursts, not in a neat monthly line. It’s like Eskom in the bad years: some months you’re lit, some months you’re sitting in the dark wondering what happened. When the lump goes, revenue drops and fixed costs stay exactly where they were, staring at you.

At home, things weren’t much better. Trellidor said local demand stayed “suppressed” with weak consumer sentiment, despite some interest rate relief. South African revenue fell 3.7% even though it had more company-owned branches.

Why South Africans buy fewer security gates

The script had a theory, and it’s worth hearing as a theory, not a fact from the company.

More people now live in estates and complexes. If you’re behind three boom gates, an electric fence and a guard who knows your car better than you do, maybe you don’t need a gate on every window. And cash-strapped households shop around, so loyalty gets replaced by “what’s on special”.

Trellidor itself simply blamed depressed consumer sentiment. Take your pick. Either way, the order book at home isn’t doing cartwheels.

What the interim results showed

The full interim results landed in March. HEPS from continuing operations came in at 0.6 cents. Revenue fell 21.3% to R161.1 million. The operating profit margin dropped from 16.5% to 2.2%. Profit after tax: R0.5 million, against R20.4 million a year earlier. No interim dividend.

Now for the better news. Trellidor cut term debt by R19.8 million, and net debt fell to R46.7 million from R85.3 million. Finance costs nearly halved. It has also sold its Taylor Blinds and NMC businesses to focus on the core.

Cost savings: the fix is coming, apparently

Management is chasing R13.9 million of annual fixed cost savings. The catch: they only started gaining momentum in the second half of the 2026 financial year, with the full benefit expected in the year to June 2027.

Translation: “Trust us, the fix is coming.” Maybe it is. But the market isn’t in a patient mood, and promises don’t show up in this set of numbers.

Trellidor: turnaround play or buyout bait?

Here’s the bit that got our attention. Trellidor described a three-phase plan: first cut debt, then cut costs, and finally “introduce a shareholder of reference to support the future development of the business”.

A shareholder of reference is a big, anchor investor with real influence. It’s not a takeover offer. But a small cap with depressed earnings, a shrinking market and a board openly looking for a heavyweight backer does start to look like a business that might end up in someone else’s hands.

And the P/E ratio? When earnings drop to fractions of a cent, dividing the share price by them becomes a comedy show. Like dividing by vibes.

Trellidor bull case

Debt is coming down fast. The UK business, excluding that one big project, is still growing. Real cost savings are in motion. And a strong anchor shareholder could bring capital and a reset away from the glare of public markets. Turnarounds that work tend to start looking exactly this ugly.

Trellidor bear case

South African demand is weak and may be structurally lower. UK revenue is lumpy by nature. The savings aren’t in the numbers yet. And turnaround stories demand patience and a stomach for volatility, with no dividend to keep you company in the meantime.

Key numbers

  • HEPS guidance: 0.01 to 1.19 cents, from 29.6 cents. So what: earnings almost wiped out for the half.
  • Actual HEPS, continuing operations: 0.6 cents. So what: bottom of the bunny chow, but not zero.
  • Net debt: R46.7m, from R85.3m. So what: the balance sheet is getting lighter.
  • Targeted cost savings: R13.9m a year. So what: the full benefit is only expected in FY27.

Takeaway: A security company whose profits need security is a turnaround story. And turnaround stories are for people who don’t panic when their steak comes out slightly pink.

Want the full braai version? Listen on Spotify. And if you’d like the Maze in your inbox, join the free Maze Mail list.

More from The Money Maze

Sources

  1. Trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2025, Trellidor Holdings on SENS, 10 Feb 2026.
  2. Unaudited interim financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, Trellidor Holdings, Mar 2026.

This is not financial advice.

Transcript

Read the full transcript

Auto-generated transcript, may contain errors.

Download as plain text (5 KB)

0:00 Welcome back to the Sunday Mazda as a feature of the Money Minister podcast for South African retail investors who want to stop feeling like they're drowning in jargon and start navigating the markets like someone who actually knows what they're doing. My name's Jay, and today we're taking a deeper look at Trailer Door, a company that sells security guides but somehow left its earnings standing outside in the rain. Now to quote one of my favourite frontwards sucks the finance cost when a trading statement opens with the praise addressing the erosion in shareholder value. You don't really need to hold a CFA charter to know this is going to hurt.

0:37 Basically, that's corporate speak for please sit down, grab a drink and we suggest you might get a double and trust me, sit down, you must hips Headline earnings per share is expected to drop between 95.97% and 99.87%. So let me translate this into language that we know. If last year you bought 30 tips for the community fire, this year you're arriving was one bury slice and half a mushroom.

1:06 HIPS is expected to land between 0.01 cents and 1.19 cents compared to 29.6 cents in the comparable year. That's not a decline. That's basically earnings being escorted off the premises. The share price is sitting at 1996. Now at that level was earnings basically evaporated, the price to earnings multiple becomes more theoretical finally, like dividing by vibes.

1:35 So let's not pretend the skimmer of nowhere. The real trouble started a few years ago was that one court case, an old employee dispute that ended up costing the business over 32,000,000 Rand. Now for Trellidor, it's not pocket change that you find under the couch. This is a serious knock. When you busy paying legal bills like that, growth plans start to look like wish lists.

2:01 Now here's the thing, demand locally has been under pressure and I don't think this is from just economic gloom. Do structural shifts are happening? First, more people are living in a state hill complexes. If you live behind three boom gates, biometric access, electric fencing and a gardening blessing and knows your car better than you do, you probably don't need a trailer door on every window. Second, they are cheaper security alternatives out there. Consumers are under pressure that shop around world tickets replaced by what's on special.

2:34 So local demand is not exactly been doing cartwheels. Ironically, recent performance was driven mainly by the UK markets. Yes, you heard me correct. UK they earned decent project revenue. They as businesses dealt with rising crime. But here's the keyword project. Project revenue is lumpy. It's like it's going to supply someone's you've let someone's you're in a dark wondering exactly what happened and this period shows you exactly what happens from that lump disappears, revenues up, market shrink and suddenly your fixed costs for looking at you like So what now management has implemented cost saving initiatives important detail.

3:15 Those savings are not yet reflected in these numbers and expect to show up in the second-half of FY26 and more meaningfully in FY27. Translation is trust us, the fix is coming. Maybe it is. Well, maybe it's not and the market is not in the mood for promises right now. At one ran 96 per share was hips basically flat lining the valuation becomes a bit of an awkward affair. You cannot run a sensible price to earnings discussion when the end of the price to earnings is basically on life support. Which brings me to something interesting. This smells like buy out territory. Small cap, depressed earnings, structural pressure, public market fatigue.

4:00 I would not be surprised at all if a plucky operator decides to take existing private, clean out the house, reset this whole strategy, and rebuild away from the glare of quarterly reporting. Because sometimes the Jays is like that. Aren't at the Bry keeps asking When you're getting married, you know no patience. So what's this now? Well, trailer door is no longer a boring defensive security stock.

4:24 It's now a turnaround ceases. And turnarounds stories are not for people who panic when they stake is slightly pink. They require patience, belief in management and a stomach for volatility. If you want to buy here, you're not buying certainty, you buying execution risk was a big helping of hope, and hope does not pay dividends. So let's get to your stockpile starter pack for the JC Goodbye Trailer Door Edition HIPS headline Earnings per share a clearer measure of operational profit.

4:56 When it drops 99%, the business is basically scraping the bottom of the barrel, lumpy revenue income that comes in bursts, not consistent project driven feast or famine. Turnaround ceases is basically an investment based on the belief that management can fix a struggling company. Price to earnings ratio Share price divided by earnings per share. When earnings disappear, the ratio becomes a comedy. If you're security company needs security profits, it's time to read the numbers carefully.

5:27 Wednesday's market reaction will tell us how investors feel about this. But one thing's clear, this is a pivotal moment for Trellidor diesel protection. Right now, shareholders could use some of that protection. And while my jokes may be more prize smoke than actual fire control, remember this is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak to a licensed advisor. Till next Sunday, keep your folio diversified and your gates firmly locked.

You might also like

The JSE stories worth knowing about, explained like a mate would at the braai. No hot tips, no spam.

Maze Mail

Listen to The Money Maze