Your share moved and the results aren’t even out. That’s the trading statement, the JSE’s early warning in a few dry paragraphs. Here’s the 20% rule, how to read the range, and why the rule nearly got scrapped.
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Picture this. Tuesday morning, you open your investing app and your share is down a proper chunk. No results out. No scandal on the news. Just a red number and that special feeling in your stomach.
Here’s the plot twist. The company told you this was coming. On purpose. On SENS. In about four dry paragraphs that most of us scroll past like a parking fine.
That’s a trading statement, and it might be the most ignored piece of paper in your portfolio. Let’s fix that.
What is a trading statement on the JSE?
It’s a JSE rule, not a marketing email. Under the JSE Listings Requirements, a listed company must publish one when its directors are reasonably certain that the results they’re about to report will differ by at least 20% from the previous comparable period, or from any forecast or guidance they already gave the market.
Twenty percent. That’s the tripwire. Up or down.
Nineteen percent? Carry on. Twenty-one? Into the SENS spotlight you go.
It goes out on SENS, the Stock Exchange News Service. That’s the official noticeboard. Not a Twitter thread. Not a WhatsApp rumour from your cousin who “knows a guy at the bank.”
The notice has to say which period it covers and give the expected change, usually as a range. You’ll see lines like “headline earnings per share are expected to increase by between 18% and 20%”. No 80-page glossy. No CEO photo in a glass boardroom. Just the early warning. The trading statement is the trailer. The results booklet is the movie.
Why the 20% rule exists, and why it nearly got the chop
Markets don’t mind surprises. They hate ambushes. If a company knew its results were about to swing wildly and said nothing until results day, the share could gap hard in one session, and whoever bought the day before walks straight into the trap.
The trading statement shrinks that ambush by forcing the rough size of the swing into public view once management is reasonably sure.
Here’s the fun bit. In November 2025 the JSE asked the market whether it should scrap trading statements, or lift the tripwire to 30% or 40%, to cut listing costs (JSE consultation paper). Allan Gray pushed back, saying trading statements help manage investor expectations and cut the risk of big, unexpected share price moves (Business Day). The feedback was overwhelmingly in favour of keeping them, so in July 2026 the JSE said it will keep the existing thresholds and wording (JSE announcement; Bowmans).
So twenty percent is still the line.
Nothing says “cutting red tape” like a consultation paper. Retail investors kept their early warning anyway, which is more than we can say for our petrol price.
How to read a HEPS range on SENS like a human
Say your stokvel owns shares in a JSE retailer that made R10 of headline earnings per share (HEPS) last year. SENS drops a trading statement: HEPS for the six months is expected to be 18% to 20% higher.
Do the maths. Eighteen percent of R10 is R1.80. Twenty percent is R2. So they’re pointing you at roughly R11.80 to R12.00 of HEPS. Not exact. Not audited. But the direction and the ballpark are on the table.
Flip it to “down 40% to 50%” and it’s a very different braai conversation. Same ticker. Same app. Completely different mood.
A real one: on Friday 2 October 2026, global trade and logistics group Santova published a trading statement on SENS. It said HEPS for the six months to 31 August 2026 is expected to be between 55.46 and 57.24 cents, up 55.4% to 60.4% on a restated 35.68 cents (Santova trading statement). That’s comfortably past the 20% tripwire.
Notice what a trading statement never says. It doesn’t say buy. It doesn’t say sell. It says “when the full numbers arrive, expect them in this neighbourhood.”
What a trading statement does to the share price
Once the trailer is public, the market starts pricing it. Sometimes the share jumps that morning. Sometimes it drifts for days. Sometimes nothing happens, because analysts had already done their sums. By the time the full results land, a chunk of the surprise may already be in the price.
Companies can also publish more than one trading statement as their certainty improves. First “at least 20% up”, later “22% to 25% up”. Each update is a new data point.
Trading statements: bull case and bear case
The bull case: trading statements give retail investors a fairer seat at the table. You don’t need a Bloomberg terminal. You need SENS, a calculator and the patience to read three paragraphs.
The bear case: it’s still guidance under uncertainty. Auditors haven’t finished, once-offs can hide in the final numbers, and a company can land inside its range and still disappoint on cash, dividends or debt. A big jump in HEPS doesn’t make a share cheap either. The price may already have moved.
Treat it like a weather warning, not a prophecy.
Stokvel Starter Pack
Four lines for the stokvel WhatsApp group:
- A trading statement is a required SENS notice once management is reasonably certain results will differ by at least 20% from the comparable period or prior guidance.
- It usually gives a percentage range for HEPS or EPS, and those two can tell different stories.
- Check the base, check which measure it uses, and turn the range into rands per share.
- Then wait for the full results, with the cash flow, dividends and footnotes, before you celebrate or panic.
Key numbers
- The tripwire: 20%, up or down. So what: a swing that big must be flagged on SENS before results.
- Rejected alternatives: scrapping the rule, or a 30% or 40% threshold. So what: the JSE kept 20% in July 2026.
- Santova’s range: HEPS up 55.4% to 60.4%. So what: a real example far past the tripwire.
- Santova’s cents: 55.46c to 57.24c, versus a restated 35.68c. So what: the range in actual numbers, before audited results.
Takeaway: The trading statement is the trailer, the results are the movie, and twenty percent is the tripwire.
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More from The Money Maze
- Cash Flow Explained – Why Profits Don’t Pay the Bills
- Income Statements Decoded – From Revenue to Net Profit
- JSE Suspensions, Delistings & Vanishing Shares Explained
- Capitec Just Had a Record Half. So Why Is It Packing a Raincoat?
Sources
1. Trading statement, Santova Limited (on SENS), 2 Oct 2026.
2. Consultation paper: JSE Listings Requirements, JSE, Nov 2025.
3. Allan Gray warns JSE trading update cuts could spark share price swings, Business Day, 4 Jun 2026.
4. Announcement on financial costs paper, JSE, Jul 2026.
5. JSE proposed amendments to Listings Requirements: financial reporting costs, Bowmans, undated.
This is not financial advice.