Trellidor (JSE: TRL): HEPS Down Up to 99.97%. Now What?
https://themoneymaze.co.za/episodes/trellidor-heps-drops-99-turnaround-play-or-buyout-bait/
Auto-generated transcript, may contain errors.

0:00 Welcome back to the Sunday Mazda as a feature of the Money Minister podcast for South African retail investors who want to stop feeling like they're drowning in jargon and start navigating the markets like someone who actually knows what they're doing. My name's Jay, and today we're taking a deeper look at Trailer Door, a company that sells security guides but somehow left its earnings standing outside in the rain. Now to quote one of my favourite frontwards sucks the finance cost when a trading statement opens with the praise addressing the erosion in shareholder value. You don't really need to hold a CFA charter to know this is going to hurt.
0:37 Basically, that's corporate speak for please sit down, grab a drink and we suggest you might get a double and trust me, sit down, you must hips Headline earnings per share is expected to drop between 95.97% and 99.87%. So let me translate this into language that we know. If last year you bought 30 tips for the community fire, this year you're arriving was one bury slice and half a mushroom.
1:06 HIPS is expected to land between 0.01 cents and 1.19 cents compared to 29.6 cents in the comparable year. That's not a decline. That's basically earnings being escorted off the premises. The share price is sitting at 1996. Now at that level was earnings basically evaporated, the price to earnings multiple becomes more theoretical finally, like dividing by vibes.
1:35 So let's not pretend the skimmer of nowhere. The real trouble started a few years ago was that one court case, an old employee dispute that ended up costing the business over 32,000,000 Rand. Now for Trellidor, it's not pocket change that you find under the couch. This is a serious knock. When you busy paying legal bills like that, growth plans start to look like wish lists.
2:01 Now here's the thing, demand locally has been under pressure and I don't think this is from just economic gloom. Do structural shifts are happening? First, more people are living in a state hill complexes. If you live behind three boom gates, biometric access, electric fencing and a gardening blessing and knows your car better than you do, you probably don't need a trailer door on every window. Second, they are cheaper security alternatives out there. Consumers are under pressure that shop around world tickets replaced by what's on special.
2:34 So local demand is not exactly been doing cartwheels. Ironically, recent performance was driven mainly by the UK markets. Yes, you heard me correct. UK they earned decent project revenue. They as businesses dealt with rising crime. But here's the keyword project. Project revenue is lumpy. It's like it's going to supply someone's you've let someone's you're in a dark wondering exactly what happened and this period shows you exactly what happens from that lump disappears, revenues up, market shrink and suddenly your fixed costs for looking at you like So what now management has implemented cost saving initiatives important detail.
3:15 Those savings are not yet reflected in these numbers and expect to show up in the second-half of FY26 and more meaningfully in FY27. Translation is trust us, the fix is coming. Maybe it is. Well, maybe it's not and the market is not in the mood for promises right now. At one ran 96 per share was hips basically flat lining the valuation becomes a bit of an awkward affair. You cannot run a sensible price to earnings discussion when the end of the price to earnings is basically on life support. Which brings me to something interesting. This smells like buy out territory. Small cap, depressed earnings, structural pressure, public market fatigue.
4:00 I would not be surprised at all if a plucky operator decides to take existing private, clean out the house, reset this whole strategy, and rebuild away from the glare of quarterly reporting. Because sometimes the Jays is like that. Aren't at the Bry keeps asking When you're getting married, you know no patience. So what's this now? Well, trailer door is no longer a boring defensive security stock.
4:24 It's now a turnaround ceases. And turnarounds stories are not for people who panic when they stake is slightly pink. They require patience, belief in management and a stomach for volatility. If you want to buy here, you're not buying certainty, you buying execution risk was a big helping of hope, and hope does not pay dividends. So let's get to your stockpile starter pack for the JC Goodbye Trailer Door Edition HIPS headline Earnings per share a clearer measure of operational profit.
4:56 When it drops 99%, the business is basically scraping the bottom of the barrel, lumpy revenue income that comes in bursts, not consistent project driven feast or famine. Turnaround ceases is basically an investment based on the belief that management can fix a struggling company. Price to earnings ratio Share price divided by earnings per share. When earnings disappear, the ratio becomes a comedy. If you're security company needs security profits, it's time to read the numbers carefully.
5:27 Wednesday's market reaction will tell us how investors feel about this. But one thing's clear, this is a pivotal moment for Trellidor diesel protection. Right now, shareholders could use some of that protection. And while my jokes may be more prize smoke than actual fire control, remember this is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak to a licensed advisor. Till next Sunday, keep your folio diversified and your gates firmly locked.