Petrol just passed R30 a litre, and the same oil and shipping chaos handed Glencore’s trading arm a bumper year. Then Glencore reset what a normal year looks like. Here’s the bonus, the new normal, and the bull and bear case.
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Petrol went up R3.33 a litre on Wednesday 7 October. Ninety-five inland is now R30.25, the first time ever past thirty rand. Fill a 50 litre tank and that’s about R166 more than last month, for the same drive to work.
Now here’s what doesn’t add up. The same oil and shipping chaos draining your tank has been an absolute jol for one JSE-listed company. On 2 October, Glencore said its trading arm will make more than five billion US dollars of Marketing adjusted EBIT this year. Trading arm only. Not the mines. Not the whole group.
Think of the traders as the tow truck that gets to the crash before the ambulance. Nobody wants the accident. But when there is one, the tow truck has a very good day. And 2026 has been one long Easter weekend on the N1.
Lovely for the tow truck. Less lovely if you’re the one paying R30.25 a litre to sit in the queue.
Who is Glencore (JSE: GLN)?
Glencore is one of the world’s biggest natural resource companies. It produces and markets more than 60 commodities in more than 30 countries. Copper, coal, oil, ferroalloys. If it comes out of the ground or travels in a tanker, Glencore has probably dug it, shipped it, or argued about its price on the phone.
Two halves. Industrial is the mines and smelters. Marketing is the trading arm. This whole story lives in the second one.
In South Africa, Glencore mines coal and ferroalloys and is the majority owner of Astron Energy, the old Caltex garage on your corner. On the JSE it’s a secondary listing, code GLN, since 2013. Its main home is London. In plain terms: a foreign company you can own in rand, and shareholders on the South African register get their payouts in rand.
What Glencore announced on 2 October
Three things, published in London and on SENS.
- This year’s Marketing adjusted EBIT is now expected to beat five billion US dollars, up from about 4.9 billion flagged in August. At around R16.64 to the dollar (the rate early on 8 October), that’s roughly R83 billion. That’s a lot of pies.
- From 2027, Glencore has reset what a normal year looks like for the traders: about 3.5 billion dollars, in a range of 2.8 to 4.2 billion.
- From Wednesday 14 October, Glencore also trades on the Australian Securities Exchange.
Jargon stop. EBIT is earnings before interest and tax. Adjusted means Glencore’s own cleaned-up version. Marketing means trading. Your uncle will quote this number at the braai as “Glencore’s profit”. He will be wrong. Let him be wrong. It’s his braai.
What Glencore’s trading arm actually does
Picture a spaza owner who also runs the bulk-buying stokvel for the whole street. She buys maize meal, cooking oil and sugar in bulk, stores it, moves it, sells it on. Small margin per bag. A mountain of bags. When there’s a shortage, her phone doesn’t stop ringing. She knows where the stock is. She has the bakkie.
That’s Glencore Marketing. It buys commodities, ships them and sells them to steel mills, power stations, refineries and battery makers. Glencore says most of the price risk on that stock is covered by a sale already lined up, or a hedge. So the traders aren’t mainly betting on oil going up. They’re paid to get the stuff where it’s needed, faster than the next oke.
Why the bumper year? Glencore says the Middle East conflict reshaped oil, refined products, gas and freight markets. Supply got tight. Ships got scarce. Tow truck weather.
Glencore’s Marketing EBIT numbers, one at a time
In the first half of 2026, Marketing adjusted EBIT was 3.3 billion dollars, up 142%. That’s close to the top of the old whole-year normal range of 2.3 to 3.5 billion. A waiter making nearly a full year’s tips before the end of June.
For the full year, more than five billion means at least 1.5 billion above the top of the old range. That’s December every month.
Now the reset. If 2027 lands bang on the new 3.5 billion midpoint, Marketing adjusted EBIT would be at least 30% lower than this year. The bonus is a bonus.
The twist: that new midpoint sits exactly where the old range used to top out. So the normal year itself got bigger. Glencore holds about a quarter more stock than a year earlier, and funding it costs about 5%. Bigger shed, more bags, pricier overdraft.
The mines are still the bigger engine. Copper kept about R52 of every R100 of sales before interest, tax and wear and tear. Energy coal, about R19. Net debt was 10.2 billion dollars at the end of June, about 0.56 times a year’s adjusted EBITDA. Not nothing. Not a sleepless night.
Glencore bull case
The traders just showed, again, that chaos pays, and Glencore points to a 19-year track record for this arm. The new normal is higher than the old normal. Debt sits around Glencore’s own cap of about 10 billion dollars. About 3.5 billion dollars of shareholder returns has been announced for 2026, including an 8.5 US cent special paid in September. Copper is aiming for about a million tonnes a year by the end of 2028. And Australia adds another shop window.
Glencore bear case
Read the reset again. Glencore itself says 2026 is the exception. The bonus came from a war and a freight crunch. If the world calms down, which we’d all like, the tow truck goes back to quiet Tuesdays. The same conflict pushed up mine costs like diesel and sulphuric acid. Coal is still a big part of the story, and plenty of funds treat coal like pineapple on pizza. And Glencore reports in US dollars, so for a rand investor the exchange rate is part of the ride.
Neither case says buy. Neither says sell. Both say: ask which half made the money before you clap.
What to watch next at Glencore
- Wednesday 14 October: Glencore starts trading in Australia under the code GLC. GLN shares on the JSE stay right where they are.
- Thursday 29 October: the third quarter production report. The mines’ report card.
- Full-year results early next year, date not out yet. That’s when we see whether the traders cleared five billion.
Key numbers
- 2026 Marketing (trading arm) adjusted EBIT: above US$5bn. So what: a bonus year, by Glencore’s own reckoning.
- New normal from 2027: about US$3.5bn (range $2.8bn to $4.2bn). So what: at least 30% below 2026 at the midpoint.
- H1 2026 Marketing (trading arm) adjusted EBIT: US$3.3bn, up 142%. So what: nearly a full normal year in six months.
- Net debt to adjusted EBITDA: 0.56x at 30 June 2026. So what: around Glencore’s own debt cap.
Takeaway: A trading arm’s profit is a weather report, not a salary.
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Sources
- ASX secondary listing and updated long-term Marketing Adjusted EBIT guidance, Glencore, 2 Oct 2026. Also on LSE RNS.
- Same announcement on SENS (JSE: GLN), Moneyweb, 2 Oct 2026.
- Glencore raises 2026 marketing profit outlook, resets long-term guidance framework, Reuters, 2 Oct 2026.
- 2026 Half-Year Report, Glencore, 5 Aug 2026.
- H1 2026 results presentation, Glencore, 5 Aug 2026.
- Shareholder FAQs, Glencore, undated.
- JSE Approval of Secondary Listing and Pre-Listing Statement, Glencore, 31 Oct 2013.
- 2026 Corporate Calendar, Glencore.
- Glencore South Africa, Glencore.
- Frequently asked questions, Astron Energy, undated.
- Fuel price media statement, change 7 October 2026, CEF for the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, 2 Oct 2026.
- South African rand steady ahead of manufacturing data, Reuters via CNBC Africa, 8 Oct 2026.
Before you start trading oil from your lounge because a tow truck had a good year, remember: this is not financial advice. While my jokes may move slower than a container ship waiting outside Durban harbour, I’m a guy explaining an announcement between sips, not your advisor. Do your own research, read Glencore’s actual announcement, and if real money’s on the line, speak to a licensed financial advisor.
This is not financial advice.